Below is an article from my friend Brandon…..again.  He writes such great stuff….that….for obvious reason….I like to post it!  Enjoy…until next time….rob

The Führer Principle

In grade school, I remember asking myself how could the German people elect someone as evil as Adolf Hitler. How could they allow such a monster to become supreme chancellor? Understanding how it happened is very important, mainly so it does not happened again. The significance of this newsletter will only make sense by looking through the lens of today’s events. Many of the main ingredients that led to the Nazi take over are present today. Recognizing the circumstances is the solution to history not repeating itself.

The beginning of the end for the Weimar Republic began with the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. For the German people, the treaty was humiliating. The treaty placed heavy restrictions on Germany much of which were embarrassing for the once proud nation. The German army was reduced to one hundred thousand solders and arms for citizens became non-existent.  The initial German economic fatalities due to the treaty were shocking. Germany’s territories vanished overnight. Germany lost approximately 13.5% of its total land mass, 13% of its industrial productivity, and more than 10% of its population. Additionally, the loss of important mining regions such as the Saar and Upper Silesia resulted in a loss of some 74% of iron ore and approximately 25% of its coal reserves. Historians and economists have long deliberated the real effects of the treaty but one thing is for certain it lead to “deprivations that shattered their faith in the democratic process and left them cynical and alienated.” –G.A. Craig

Germany’s economic situation never improved. To keep up with the stringent demands of the treaty, the Weimar Republic faced hyperinflation never seen before in history. The German Mark ratio to the U.S. dollar was 4 to 1 near the end of the WWI. It was 8 to 1 in 1919, 250 to 1 in 1921, and 2000 to 1 in 1923. The Weimar government, at various times, faced food shortages, massive unemployment, and an unprecedented economic depression. By 1932, some 6 million Germans were unemployed. Millions of them were homeless living on the streets relying on soup kitchens and charity organizations. “Men standing hopelessly on street corners of every industrial town in Germany; houses without food or warmth; young people without the chance of a job. All these things explain the bitterness which burned in the minds of millions of ordinary Germans.”

The escalation of political violence in Weimar Germany must certainly be factored in as a contributory reason for the country’s political volatility. Beginning with the emergence of the Freikorps, which later became the brutal SS, formed units immediately after the declaration of the Republic. The tendency toward violence became entrenched in Weimar politics after the 1919 assassinations of Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. Large protests and riots became an all too familiar sight for the citizens of Germany.

Among the widespread disarray and frustration, the basic notion of a government was being questioned. What type of government could lead and govern the will of the people? This ongoing debate became known as the Führer Principle. The Führer Principle is established on the acknowledgment that the true will of the people cannot be revealed through plebiscites but that the will of the people in its natural and virtuous state can only be articulated through the Führer. Therefore, a difference must be drawn between the theoretical will of the people in a parliamentary democracy, which simply echoes the discord of diverse social perspectives, and the true will of the people in the Führer-state. Hitler took the Führer Principle and redefined it as himself…he was the Führer. Redefining the Führer was nothing short of audacious. It was captivating and alluring to many who were famished for change.

Many of the governing members in the Reichstag (congress) struggled to tame and communicate effectively to the youth of Germany. The Reichstag members continually doubted the youth’s ability to recognize a just government. Keep in mind most of Germany’s youth grew up in this chaotic state. Their view towards the government was distorted to say the least. The Weimar Republic only lasted 14 years but before that Germany spent the last 5 years in battle. A huge cohort of individuals only knew suffering and turmoil. Disconnect between the defenders of the former Kaiser rule and much more progressive governments were mounting daily. During the short lived Weimar Republic, Communism, Socialism, and a whirl of leaders/dictators were fighting for control.

Hitler knew very well that the youth’s mind were especially susceptible. This is exactly why he began with them. In the beginning, his messages were engineered for the youth. He knew the youth would be prone to messages of change and optimism. Joseph Goebbels (Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda) used propaganda methods to manipulate the masses. It was this desolate desire for change that gave Hitler his power.

The straw that broke the camels back for the Weimar Republic was the American Great Depression. The stock market crash of 1929 sent shock waves across Europe. The crash knocked Germany into the gallows. It was Hitler’s time to move. On September 14th, 1930, the Reichstag elections were held. The results were shocking. The Nazis had entered the register as the ninth and smallest of Germany’s political parties. The German people voted. The Nazis controlled 107 seats after that election. In November 1932, Hitler was defeated in the presidential election to WWI veteran Paul von Hindenburg. He received 42% of the votes. Hitler decided to enter a coalition government as chancellor in January 1933. Upon the death of Hindenburg in August 1934, Hitler become successor by popular vote.

Today, we are suffering the ongoing effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression. We are facing a global economic contraction. Greece is on the verge of insolvency and the US is limping along. Worldwide riots and protests have plagued the streets invoking for revolution. Frustration levels are swelling. This is the formula for calamity. However, it begins with the youth. Vladimir Lenin famously referred to youth uprisings as “useful idiots”. With the exception of the American Revolution, most revolutions in history conclude with a radical party seizing opportunity out of the political madness. People such as Hitler, Mao, and Lenin took advantage of a chaotic situation. I do not foresee a Weimar revolution of this magnitude anytime in the near future. Nevertheless, if we are not careful and mindful of the situation it becomes an unquestionable possibility. Education and knowledge of the truth is the only thing that will prevent history from repeating itself.

Have a great weekend my friends!

Brandon Saylor
-Associate

Outrunning a Recession

A near-term recession is possible, but recent economic data suggest the economy is staying ahead of it. The latest is the September retail sales report released this morning by the Census Bureau, revealing a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent increase in total sales during the month and a 0.5 percent gain in core sales, which excludes autos and gas. Motor vehicles led with a gain of 3.6 percent. Other strong performers included clothing & accessories (+1.3 percent), food services & drinking establishments (+1.2 percent) and furniture & home furnishings (+1.1 percent).

There are casualties in the retail space, too. Tim Van Noord, our intrepid research manager in Grubb & Ellis’ Boston office, confirmed that the Good Newstand (sic) is no longer in business. On his way back to the office, Tim said he passed shuttered Borders and Barnes & Noble stores as well. But in search of good news, Tim ventured to nearby Cambridge, where Google just expanded by 60,000 square feet and Microsoft has announced an expansion. Tim says people are “opting out of print media and using smart phones, iPads and other devices to get their news in digital form.”

Gap Inc.’s announcement that it will shutter a fifth of its namesake stores stands in contrast to the jump in clothing sales last month. Retail has long been one of the most competitive property sectors, and Gap’s problems are due mainly to overexpansion, merchandising missteps and aggressive competition.

Consumer spending, while not strong, has been enough to keep the economy afloat, which is important because it accounts for 70 percent of total GDP. The economy has been a factor in recent closings such as Borders and downsizings such as Gap, but the bigger factor has been aggressive competition from other retailers in the case of Gap and new technologies in the case of Borders.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

Before I jump into the history lesson for the day, let me set the context by explaining the elementary moral of the laws of economics. As they say, “economics is the painful elaboration of the obvious.”  And while this old joke is true, the laws of economics do not bend or bypass stature. This is why we call them laws. There is no immunity to a government or an individual who accumulates too much debt. You either have to spend less and balance or face insolvency.  The same law of economics applies to the United States Federal Government.

Our first option is to implement austerity measures. Australia, among other countries, should be looked to for inspiration.  Australia went through a downgrade experience. In 1986, both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s downgraded Australia’s foreign currency rating. Australia was downgraded a second time in 1989, after little action was taken to make the necessary changes. The shockwaves of the second downgrade sent Australia into a deep recession. The treasurer, Paul Keating, cautioned that Australia was in jeopardy of becoming a “banana republic.” Instead of running budget deficits and playing the blame game, he altered the direction and, after two years, delivered the first surplus. “But that did not get our credit rating back,” Keating said. “We did not recover our AAA rating until 2003.” It took a little over 17 years after that first downgrade for to Australia completely recover.

Canada also endured a manifold stage downgrade over a period of several years. In October of 1992, S&P dropped Canada’s foreign debt rating by one notch from AAA to AA+. Interestingly, there was little impact on Canadian markets. Moody’s followed S&P and downgraded the foreign debt rating by one notch. The 10-year note increased 0.45% over the subsequent months and stocks plunged 6%. In April 1995, Moody’s downgraded Canada again. In reaction to the downgrades and severe negative economic news, Canada enacted strict budget reforms. Prime Minister Jean Chrétien slashed federal spending by a monstrous 20%.  He fired 23% of public sector workers, raised taxes, cut defense expenditures by 15%, lacerated certain subsidies by 40% to 60% and eradicated some ministries completely. Canada did not regain the prestigious AAA rating until 2002.
There are two things to be cognizant of in the next few years. Both Australia and Canada reported minor hiccups in economic growth after the 1st downgrade. It was only after the second downgrade did both countries experience a chain reaction to brutal economic consequences. They also reacted with swift and bold changes only after the second downgrade. If history is any guide, not much will change with the 1st downgrade. As it sits now, S&P has the United States on a negative outlook. It only seems reasonable to assume we will be downgraded again. A second downgrade seems especially eminent because Congress has such a wide ideological rift in remedy for the debt problems. The second thing to be aware of is the status of other AAA rated countries. Besides Australia and Canada there are 12 other countries with a AAA credit rating. The other countries are Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland and England. In the near future, I can see most, if not all, of the European nations challenged with a downgrade. France and England seem especially vulnerable in these volatile times.

Option number two is to inflate our way to “prosperity”. Quantitative easing is a fancy way of saying the Fed is going to print (or as they say “digitize”) money to ease our debt and stimulate the economy. Hoping that this will pave a way for a brighter economic climate is just as wishful as magically finding the other side of the rainbow. It does not work. The by product is always inflation or hyperinflation. Inflation is a law of economics. History is my witness.

Think Weimar Republic, Germany, post World War I. The German Mark ratio to the U.S. dollar was 4 to 1 near the end of the war. It was 8 to 1 in 1919, 250 to 1 in 1921, and 2000 to 1 in 1923. Hyper-inflation hit so hard that newspapers sold for $100 billion marks! It was reported that most people were paid by the hour so individuals could purchase goods during their lunch break before the mark slipped further into the value of nothing.

In 1989, after years of massive budget deficits that were financed with borrowing from abroad, the Argentinean government resorted to the printing press. Hyperinflation soon kicked in. It was reported that grocery stores did not price any inventory. A man with a microphone would broadcast the prices of numerous items, frequently increasing the price every few hours by 30% or more. Workers would get their pay in cash and dash to the store to buy anything. By the end of the week their pay would be worthless.
Zimbabwe has been plagued for years with colossal deficits. In 2008, Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate reached 516 quintillion per cent, that is 516 followed by 18 zeros. For the common Zimbabwean, the end result is atrocious. They must spend money as soon as they get it before it loses its value. The dysfunctional economy means that goods are in dreadfully short supply and they must spend hours searching for things to buy.

Of course, these are extreme examples however it goes to show, inflation is not a theoretical issue; it is reality. There are many other examples such as Hungary (1946), Japan (2001), and the United States (1933).The history and consequences of hyperinflation is required material in most Latin American schools. The United States is not exempt to these fundamental laws. Expect QE3 to be on the horizon despite many assertions to the contrary.

We are at the crossroads of a very important historical decision. Quantitative easing is the hail marry of economics. It is the last resort. For the sake of the future of this country, I hope we can find a way to reduce federal spending and find a way to balance. It really is the only way of out of this hole.
Brandon Saylor
-Associate

I found out today that New Mexico is not LAST in everything.  We are first is DWIs as well as the first state to adopt a Real Estate Recovery Fund…which has now been adopted by most states.  So…yes…we do have pride in being first….or maybe we have pride in being last?

Anyway…

Quick thought….

A while back I was reading  a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb called The Black Swan.  Great book by the way.  Anyway…I remember Mr. Taleb talking about banks and how over the years…the banks have gotten bigger all over the world (smaller banks being absorbed by the big ones).  What was more interesting was how he stated that all the banks are tightly connected in a dangerous way.  More specifically, how if one big banks goes down how it impacts all the other banks.

Now…we all saw this when big banks started failing in the United States….but have we really been impacted by failing banks in other parts of the world?  I am sure we have in one form or another…but what is happening in Dubai brings Mr. Taleb’s words back to life.  If…by some chance the ordeal with Dubai explodes.  Will we see another big bank fall?  Which we all know is possible.  If another big bank falls…what will be the impact to us Americans?  ….to the world?

I am sure I am showing my ignorance…but in the big picture of things….I do know this is a dangerous situation.  Chances are someone will save the day ….for now….but I am sure we have not heard the last of this situation.

Read more here on the situation in Dubai:

Dubai Scrounges for Cash as New Deadline Looms

Until next time…..rob

Level 1

Financial

• Current rent rolls

• Operating and capital budget

• Operating statements YTD or 12 months running (certified)

• Discrepancies between rent roll and actual occupancy

• Unit mix or certified square footage

o Respective rents

• Existing financing or liens on property

• Check of value

o Cap rate

o Cost/Unit

o Cost/Sq Foot

o Gross Rent Multiplier

o Replacement Cost

• Understand staffing costs

o All current employees

• Name

• Job title and description

• Pay rate

o Benefits

General

• Physical confirmation of property conditions through site walkthrough

• View all vacant spaces to determine what capital would be required to induce a

new tenant

• View all common areas and base building areas

• Interview management team, leasing personnel, handyman (scope of work,

employee or contract labor, rate)

• Machinery/Equipment

o Office Equipment

o Maintenance Equipment

o Tools

o Vehicles

o Other

• Supplies

Physical

• Physical confirmation of property conditions through site walk through

• Property zoning classification

• View all base building areas, all floors, central plant, roof, exterior wall

• View all areas of building exterior and interior common areas

• Walk property line, photographs

• Night Inspection

o Security and lighting

• Review all architectural and engineering documents related to property

• Street size, congestion, condition, accessibility into property

• Biggest recurring maintenance problem

• Vacant sites on property (potential to expand existing property)

Level 2

Financial

• Add: Rent rolls, Operating Statements (certified), Capital Expenditures past 3

years

o Operating Income statements for past 3 years

o Balance sheet statements for past 3 years

o Tax returns for past 3 years

o Chart of accounts

o Accounts Receivable:

• Rents (Rate, due dates, history)

• Misc. Income sources

• Home sales, leases, rent/lease option, notes, contracts

• Bank accounts, deposits, other financial assets

o Accounts payable:

• Purchase orders

• Open/credit accounts

• Petty cash

• Notes payable

o Approved vendors

o Contracts

• Copies of every lease on rent roll

o Include names, addresses, current amount, deposits, rent history, estoppel

certificates, late fees, NSF, collection)

• Schedule for rent increases

• Estoppels from no less than 75% of tenants in commercial building, including

ALL tenants expiring or renewing in next 3 years and ALL tenants leasing over

10% of the building area

• Determine if any change in property taxes (Do taxes break out cost of land?)

• Pull original land purchase price on project

• Understand all transaction costs

o Real estate commission, if any

o Legal fees pursuant to transaction

o Accounting fees relative to financial statement review and pro forma

preparation

o Possible acquisition fee if an advisor’s services are utilized

o Title-related costs (insurance)

o Mortgage costs (points and closing fees)

o Appraisal

o Inspection

o Engineering reports/survey

o Environmental study

• Recalculate:

o Cap rate

o Cost/unit

o Cost/sq ft

o 1st year cash-on-cash

o 1st year total ROI

• Investigate financing possibilities

General

• Thorough understanding of the workings of the property under current setup

o Policies/procedures Manual

o Move in & move out procedures

o Existent files for residents, vendors, etc

o Emergency notebook

o Leases (written or verbal)

o Deposits/administrative fees

o Software used including maintenance and support

o Office supplies

o Forms/letterheads

• Interview all tenants on estoppel list to confirm information provided by seller

o Ask about problem areas—Management, physical property/structure, etc

• Delinquent units

• Confirm all information received against information developed through

investigation

• Develop a trust quotient with Seller

• Name and contact info for existing Insurance agent and coverage

o Copy of existing policy

o Workmen’s comp, liability, bond, hazard

• Local commercial agent

o What do apts sell for

o What are current rents

o What would comparable structure sell for

o Sales info for other groups in same area

o Average per capita of storage square footage

• Local residential agent

• Look into local advertising

o Current yellow pages cost

o Yellow book

• What percentage of competitors are in Yellow book

o Other avenues

• Local transactional real estate attorney

• Local Industry contacts i.e. Applicable associations

• Location of local:

o Post office

o Bank

o Schools

o Stores

o Employers

o Public Transportation

• Local rent survey, average rates for standard units

o Last 2 completed by Seller

o Over last 5-10 years if possible

o Check local newspapers for ads, etc.

o Local telephone directory and Yellow book for ads

o List of local competing retailers

o Evaluation Seller’s currently used ads, signage, brochures, etc.

o Chamber of Commerce packet

o Verify occupancy, rates fees charged, security systems

o Phone call and physical visit to each competing property (See

supplemental “Market Study” form)

• Pictures if permissible

• Interview managers

• Name of off-site management company

• Need copies of permits:

o All city and county permits

o Storm water management permit

o Consumption use permit

o Water supply permits

o Pool, Jacuzzi, etc.

• Learn about local laws

o Leases

o Evictions

o Regulation

o Licenses

Regulatory Agencies

• Board of health

o Copy of license

o Property records

o Pool and Jacuzzi reports

o Violation notices, if any

• Building department

o Talk with inspector

o Planning for other similar projects

o Ease of permitting

o Name of good roofer

o Name of good inspection company

o Building costs

o Name of good appraiser

o Certificates of occupancy

o Permits in force

o Local codes

o Known violations and records thereof

• Engineering Department

o Drainage information

o Local soil maps

o Proposed area improvements and related assessments

o Impact fees

o Utilities concerns

• Sewer, water, electrical and gas

• DER-EPA (Dept of Environmental regulation and environmental protection

agency)

o Wastewater treatment plant discharge permit

o Effluent testing results

o Flow records

o Treatment plant violations

o Domestic water supply permit

o Domestic water test results,

o Domestic water violations

o Domestic water flow records.

• City Planning—talk to senior planner

o Current new building permits for projects under development

o Path of development

o Floodplain maps

o Impact fees?

o Barriers to entry

o Ease of permitting

o Zoning in 4 mile radius

o Zoning in our area

o Special zoning?

• Map

o Thoughts of over-building of ________(student housing, self storage, etc)

• Tax assessors

o How much will property taxes be after sale

o How often do they reassess

o Name of good appraiser

• Better business bureau

• Chamber of commerce

o Growth statistics

o Boom bust economy

o Typical job types

o Projected growth areas

o Path of development

• Register of Deeds (or possibly a title company)

o Property ownership

o Eases and Encumbrances

o Legal description and acreage

Utilities

• Copies of meter record for both treatment plant and water supply wells

o Sewage treatment plant and water supply records

• Approvals for water sanitary collection system

• Approvals for domestic water distribution system

• Utilities Department

o Sewer and water rates

o Tap-in fees

o Impact fees

o Sewer and water capacity requirements

• Utilities commission

o Rules, regulation and status of utility

• Drainage district

• Name and contact info for gas and electric utility company

o Types of approved units

o Who owns and maintains

• Name and Contact info for telephone company

• Trash collection

• Name and contact info Cable television

o Who owns system

o Who maintains system

o Who invoices users

o Existence of a formal agreement between property and cable company

• Can it be renegotiated

Physical

• Professional contractor inspection

• Maintenance

o Evaluation

o Deferred maintenance items

o Obsolescence (how/why)

• Night Inspection

o Security and lighting

• Street plans with utilities identified

• Roof condition

• Boundary survey including all easements and encumberances

• Retrieve air quality samples

• Drainage type and adequacy

• Sewerage handling and adequacy

• Irrigation system

• Floodplain presence

• Vegetation and maintenance

• Environmental issues

• Inspect all maintenance records and interview supervisors in charge of critical

areas

• Receive copies of all documents related to mandatory inspections ADA/TDLR

compliance, ACM inspections, etc.

• Develop 5-10 year Capital plan for property, price projects, schedule out

o 2 Bids on cost of major improvements

o Cost for installing security, alarms, video

• Research any problems with elevators, other equipment

Fire/Life safety system status

• Type of building structure, any below grade levels, soil type

• Type of building cooling and heating systems

• Vertical transportation systems

• Type, age, and condition of roof (warranty)

• General assessment of leaks and exterior wall condition

• Elevators up to ASME A17.3 standards (Texas)

Red Flags

• Seller balks at providing records or access as committed in contract

• Stained ceiling tiles around the perimeter of the building (or shrinking

gaskets/joint failure)

• Dirty mechanical and electrical closets

• Poor maintenance and inspection records

• Financial records or estoppels not available

• Significant error in process or accounting