Search Results for "education"
The Führer Principle – Brandon Saylor
Posted by: | CommentsGreetings from Albuquerque, NM….
Below is an article from my friend Brandon…..again. He writes such great stuff….that….for obvious reason….I like to post it! Enjoy…until next time….rob
The Führer Principle
In grade school, I remember asking myself how could the German people elect someone as evil as Adolf Hitler. How could they allow such a monster to become supreme chancellor? Understanding how it happened is very important, mainly so it does not happened again. The significance of this newsletter will only make sense by looking through the lens of today’s events. Many of the main ingredients that led to the Nazi take over are present today. Recognizing the circumstances is the solution to history not repeating itself.
The beginning of the end for the Weimar Republic began with the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. For the German people, the treaty was humiliating. The treaty placed heavy restrictions on Germany much of which were embarrassing for the once proud nation. The German army was reduced to one hundred thousand solders and arms for citizens became non-existent. The initial German economic fatalities due to the treaty were shocking. Germany’s territories vanished overnight. Germany lost approximately 13.5% of its total land mass, 13% of its industrial productivity, and more than 10% of its population. Additionally, the loss of important mining regions such as the Saar and Upper Silesia resulted in a loss of some 74% of iron ore and approximately 25% of its coal reserves. Historians and economists have long deliberated the real effects of the treaty but one thing is for certain it lead to “deprivations that shattered their faith in the democratic process and left them cynical and alienated.” –G.A. Craig
Germany’s economic situation never improved. To keep up with the stringent demands of the treaty, the Weimar Republic faced hyperinflation never seen before in history. The German Mark ratio to the U.S. dollar was 4 to 1 near the end of the WWI. It was 8 to 1 in 1919, 250 to 1 in 1921, and 2000 to 1 in 1923. The Weimar government, at various times, faced food shortages, massive unemployment, and an unprecedented economic depression. By 1932, some 6 million Germans were unemployed. Millions of them were homeless living on the streets relying on soup kitchens and charity organizations. “Men standing hopelessly on street corners of every industrial town in Germany; houses without food or warmth; young people without the chance of a job. All these things explain the bitterness which burned in the minds of millions of ordinary Germans.”
The escalation of political violence in Weimar Germany must certainly be factored in as a contributory reason for the country’s political volatility. Beginning with the emergence of the Freikorps, which later became the brutal SS, formed units immediately after the declaration of the Republic. The tendency toward violence became entrenched in Weimar politics after the 1919 assassinations of Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. Large protests and riots became an all too familiar sight for the citizens of Germany.
Among the widespread disarray and frustration, the basic notion of a government was being questioned. What type of government could lead and govern the will of the people? This ongoing debate became known as the Führer Principle. The Führer Principle is established on the acknowledgment that the true will of the people cannot be revealed through plebiscites but that the will of the people in its natural and virtuous state can only be articulated through the Führer. Therefore, a difference must be drawn between the theoretical will of the people in a parliamentary democracy, which simply echoes the discord of diverse social perspectives, and the true will of the people in the Führer-state. Hitler took the Führer Principle and redefined it as himself…he was the Führer. Redefining the Führer was nothing short of audacious. It was captivating and alluring to many who were famished for change.
Many of the governing members in the Reichstag (congress) struggled to tame and communicate effectively to the youth of Germany. The Reichstag members continually doubted the youth’s ability to recognize a just government. Keep in mind most of Germany’s youth grew up in this chaotic state. Their view towards the government was distorted to say the least. The Weimar Republic only lasted 14 years but before that Germany spent the last 5 years in battle. A huge cohort of individuals only knew suffering and turmoil. Disconnect between the defenders of the former Kaiser rule and much more progressive governments were mounting daily. During the short lived Weimar Republic, Communism, Socialism, and a whirl of leaders/dictators were fighting for control.
Hitler knew very well that the youth’s mind were especially susceptible. This is exactly why he began with them. In the beginning, his messages were engineered for the youth. He knew the youth would be prone to messages of change and optimism. Joseph Goebbels (Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda) used propaganda methods to manipulate the masses. It was this desolate desire for change that gave Hitler his power.
The straw that broke the camels back for the Weimar Republic was the American Great Depression. The stock market crash of 1929 sent shock waves across Europe. The crash knocked Germany into the gallows. It was Hitler’s time to move. On September 14th, 1930, the Reichstag elections were held. The results were shocking. The Nazis had entered the register as the ninth and smallest of Germany’s political parties. The German people voted. The Nazis controlled 107 seats after that election. In November 1932, Hitler was defeated in the presidential election to WWI veteran Paul von Hindenburg. He received 42% of the votes. Hitler decided to enter a coalition government as chancellor in January 1933. Upon the death of Hindenburg in August 1934, Hitler become successor by popular vote.
Today, we are suffering the ongoing effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression. We are facing a global economic contraction. Greece is on the verge of insolvency and the US is limping along. Worldwide riots and protests have plagued the streets invoking for revolution. Frustration levels are swelling. This is the formula for calamity. However, it begins with the youth. Vladimir Lenin famously referred to youth uprisings as “useful idiots”. With the exception of the American Revolution, most revolutions in history conclude with a radical party seizing opportunity out of the political madness. People such as Hitler, Mao, and Lenin took advantage of a chaotic situation. I do not foresee a Weimar revolution of this magnitude anytime in the near future. Nevertheless, if we are not careful and mindful of the situation it becomes an unquestionable possibility. Education and knowledge of the truth is the only thing that will prevent history from repeating itself.
Have a great weekend my friends!
Brandon Saylor
-Associate
Getting Started in Commercial Real Estate on Your Own And Without the Sales Pitch
Posted by: | CommentsGreetings! My blog just got hijacked. I wonder how that happens…..well….I guess the bright side is that the “blog terrorist” felt this blog was getting enough traffic to hijack. Well….for those of you that had to endure the nonsense….I apologize. I wish I could tell you it would never happen again…but then…I am not sure how it happened in the first place.
Anyways….
One of the biggest lessons I have learned in my limited time in real estate investing is that the people to learn from are those with real experience. As with many of you, I started with books and “boot camps”….and in some cases that works well with residential investing. But with commercial real estate, the stakes are much bigger and the learning curve is much steeper. But the “gurus” don’t tell you that.
My biggest mistake was I did not research the people I was learning from. Learning how to invest from a “guru” that had limited experience with commercial real estate was a big mistake. Even more of a mistake was learning from gurus who were using other people’s experiences and successes as their own to sell their program. Yes…this happens a lot more than we think.
Luckily, I was so hardheaded and ignorant, that I took the information with confidence and pushed through. Sometimes you can push so hard that you take down a wall. Fortunately, at the time, it was the right wall. But, with that said, there were a lot of mistakes that only guidance from experience professionals could have helped me avoid.
Now…what I am NOT saying is…”it takes years of experience to start investing in commercial real estate.” That is not what I am saying at all. But….what it does take is the correct education and guidance. Honestly….this is the best way and your success can be realized much faster than you think or what others tell you.
So…you are probably expecting a sales pitch here….but on the contrary, here are some tips on how to get started on your own….that is right…. how to get started without a flashy package and a smooth talking guru….
Rob’s thoughts are ideas on getting started in commercial real estate:
1) Keep your money for now. Thinking about spending 2K, 5K, 10K on a good looking”how to invest in ……” package where the marketing says “20K in value…but for a limited time….only $4,999.00 you can have the plan to wealth…and my personal phone number.” When you hear that….tighten up…have a cup of joe….and remember my words here…KEEP YOUR MONEY.
2) Buy a good book on commercial real estate. Don’t buy a book from a “guru” where all the information in the book is to push you to a boot camp. Now…there are good books out there that are trying to sell you something, but they give you a lot of value too. One of my favorites is Investing in Commercial Real Estate for Dummies by Harris and Conti. A great book in explaining the basics. Another of my favorites but will bore you to tears is The Handbook of Commercial Real Estate Investing by John McHan. The importance of reading up on commercial real estate is to see if you even have a true interest. If the books above get you excited, you may have commercial real estate in your blood.
3) Take a Real Estate Licensing class. I recommend Kaplan based on my experience. The licensing class does not mean you have to get a license. It is a good course to get you familiar with the laws, codes, etc., in your area for not only real estate but property management as well. I learned a lot in my licensing class. More than I thought I would. But I also learned that one of my instructors had no clue about commercial real estate….just residential
4) Take the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) courses. This is the boot camp you want to attend. Yes…it is somewhat expensive and time consuming. There are four classes and each class lasts five days. But, if commercial investing is where you want to be, this is the course you want to take. This will help you analyze projects at depths you had no idea existed. You will also learn how to do demographic studies, leases, etc. Plus the networking at these courses are invaluable. When you finish all the courses, you will have an opportunity to get certifed but you will have to meet some strict and demanding guidelines just to qualify to take the final test. But…I digress.
5) Find a friend, make a friend. Find someone in your local area that is successful at doing what you want to be doing and follow their lead (also known as modeling). This is by far the best advice I can give you. If you have a great interest in commercial real estate, finding someone who is a success at it is the best thing you can do for yourself. This may take some time and it is uncomfortable at first….but well worth it. Chances are this person/mentor will be a real estate agent/broker/CCIM investor.
If you do all the above and still want to go to a smooth talking guru…..by all means….but I definitely went full circle starting out with gurus and ending up with the “right way.” Real experience from real investor is by far the best way to find success in commercial real estate.
Until next time…..rob
Questions To Ask Your Financial Planner…..
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The Real Wealth Expert Panel
Greetings from the metropolis of Cedar Crest, NM!
Today’s post comes from a question from a friend of mine. It is a detour from real estate, but like most of us, we have investments in different types of vehicles….stocks and mutual funds for example. So…I thought this may be helpful for some of you…..
Rob, I have a meeting with my financial planner next Tuesday. I primarily invest in mutual funds and stocks. My portfolio has dwindled buy 50%. I would like to know what questions I should ask my financial planner in order to right the ship.
I took the question to my good friends Emily and Steve….you can read both of their replies below….
There is a lot of information here….so feel free to print out…..
Response from Emily:
Hi Rob,
Emily Cressey Real Estate Investor and Coach
I think it’s a great question, and I would be glad to weigh in with some thoughts.
There’s nothing like suffering a down market to make you stop and re-evaluate your investment strategy.
However, a down or volatile market is rarely the best time to sell off mutual funds. These are the days to stick to your strategy and dollar-cost-average your way into the market while prices are low. (As I write this, I don’t think the market is particularly low or undervalued, I’m just speaking in general about when the market is “down.”)
Most mutual fund investors invest for the long term with the assumption that the market will go up approximately 11% a year on average. However, with the current political climate and anticipated changes in increased government spending and government debt, as well as the potential government-takeover of the private medical sector, I think it’s reasonable to question these underlying assumptions, and hedge your bets a bit in case the next 100 years in the stock market don’t perform as well as the prior 80 years have.
One of the biggest things to look at is your asset allocation.
Within the stock market, you may have created some diversity. Personally I invest in the following funds:
- S&P 500 – 35% of portfolio
- Small and Midcap Index Fund – 35% of Portfolio
- Total International Fund: 25%
- REITS: 5%
I don’t have a larger share of REITS because I have real estate investments outside of my stock investments.I am more heavily invested internationally now than I have been in the past due to concerns about the future of the US economy.
I hold no bonds because their primary purpose in a securities portfolio is generally to provide stability – at the cost of lower returns. I am young enough that I don’t seek security in my portfolio at this time. I am chasing the higher returns. This may change as I get nearer to the age at which I plan to start pulling money out of the portfolio or living off its returns.
I do have about 5-10% of my investable assests available as liquid cash reserves that are available to invest in various things including real estate or stock should an excellent opportunity present itself. This also lends some stability to the portfolio should something terrible happen.
In addition, I keep a 6-month emergency reserve for my family, separate savings accounts to save up for things like furniture or a new car, and operating capital for my businesses in case a rental property goes vacant or I need to do a repair on a house, pay my accountant, etc.
I think as far as questions to ask your financial planner go, I would focus on evaluating your overall portfolio strategy at this time to see if it still meets your needs. Do you have the cash reserves, the portfolio-stabilizing bonds and cash, and the life insurance and operating capital you need to meet your needs? Are you comfortable with the overall risk and return of the assets you are holding? Do you need to re-balance anything? And finally are there other asset classes that it makes sense for you to diversify into… real estate you own and operate, businesses, private mortgages, gold, etc. My parents says their best-performing asset last year was a loan they made to me. Personally, my cash-flow real estate is doing well, it’s always nice to get checks in the mail!
There are lots of ways to invest – but they are not all “easy” things for your financial planner to sell. If you are willing to put the time into other types of investments, start with some books at the library (Or this blog, if it’s commercial real estate), and find out what people do who are successful with those investments, and what the risks are, as well as the ramp-up-time.
A lot of people are risk-tolerant on paper, but then when there is a shake-up, they have trouble staying the course. It’s no fun to lose a million bucks just because the stock market has a bad day.
If you’re not comfortable with the losses you’ve taken, don’t just “Sell” to stabilize things, but look toward starting to buy some different asset classes that will create a more stable base for your net worth.
Also, remember to see what you need to do for your different goals – saving for kids college is a much different time line and should have a different strategy than saving for retirement.
I invest for retirement and my son’s college separately. Our goal is 20% of our income going into retirement savings. After we’ve covered that, our extra savings goes into paying down our mortgage. Currently we’re not putting any more money into real estate at the moment, because it already represents a significant chunk of our assets, and we’re trying to diversify a bit to spread out the risk and return. The nice thing about paying down debt is that you get an immediate, guaranteed, tax-free return!
Well, that was long-winded, but it hopefully will give you some good things to think about.
The challenge about financial planning in the abstract is that there is so much that is about YOU, and your situation, and not just “What the book says.” I think you’ll have a great conversation with your financial advisor, and please let us know if you have any further questions!
Response from Steve:
Rob,
Before I give my answer to your friend’s question, I’m going to answer a that wasn’t
asked but that I believe is very relevant …“How can I optimally work with any advisors”?
I strongly believe in and use advisors myself (attorneys, book-keepers,
CPA’s, physical training, financial mentoring, business mentoring and have
in the past used financial planners for years).I believe three of the most significant keys to the effectiveness of your
advisors are:1. Are my advisors really advising me for my best interest?
Are they teaching me HOW to think about things or just saying “do this”?
You of course have to expect and ask for this as often people want to take
the easy way out and just have someone tell them what they need to do. For
example I really like my Iron-Man triathlon coach … except she doesn’t
really want to explain WHY we’re doing certain things.2. Is my advisor actually DOING what’s being advised or are they simply
making money from giving the “advice”?
This is especially true in the area of financial planners, many of whom are
doing poor financially themselves. This is why I’m following my passion of
teaching/coaching others as their “personal CFO” … to teach them HOW to
think financially what’s best for them.3. And lastly and this is an important one … The quality of my advisor
depends on ME and the questions I ask.
While I greatly appreciate the advisors I use, the quality of the questions
I ask makes a big difference. For example notice the difference with the
following two questions about the same topic.“Should I invest in this opportunity”?
“What should I think about before I choose to invest in this opportunity,
and what are the risks I should consider before doing so? How CAN I
optimally make this investment”?For example if I was asked the 2nd question I might reply with the following
helping you think through the following.“It depends” … What upside do you see (is it worth considering assuming
this works out as planned and will you do this type of investment again …
if not why bother looking further? Let’s review the risks associated with
this type of investment. (NOTE this may heavily depend upon YOU … for
example since I invest in cash-flow apartment complexes I view them as safe,
while I’m no longer involved with stocks and thus for me they’re more risky.
WHATEVER type of investment you choose you should at least understand the
basics of them (see attachment). Many people invest in mutual funds which
are very easy but not many know that if you purchase towards the end of the
year you’ll likely be charged taxes as though you’d owned the fund all year.
As you grow as an investor you’ll learn to ask better questions and hence
get better answers. You do NOT need to know all the details but at least
how the basics work. ASK your advisor to explain them to you.Some suggested questions first for YOU (not your advisor):
1. What is the goal of this investment (i.e. have enough money in 10
years for most of my daughters college education)?2. Do I understand the “basics” of how stock and mutual fund
investing works? If not you may want to read “Take on the Street -
What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You to Know & What
you Can Do to Fight Back” – Arther Levitt, former chairman of SEC. I
am NOT saying you shouldn’t invest in stocks or mutual funds … I did for
years and others are still doing it successfully. I have more of a bias
for real estate as I have advantages there vs. the stock market
where I don’t. I would recommend you learn about options, puts, and
calls which can protect you if you’re investing in the market vs. the
advice “just invest for the long term” … which by the way mutual fund
companies don’t do (i.e. their turnover ratio is often greater than 1 where
they sell every stock in the fund at least once a year).OK, so I’m a little long winded and as you can see I have an opinion on
this, let’s get back to the “original question”Questions for your financial planner?
1. How are you compensated from my investments?
* Is it a flat fee (i.e. % of your $’s invested) or commission / loads on
your investments? For example in the insurance world brokers receive a
larger commission for selling more expensive “whole life” policies vs. term.
It helps to understand any potential biases.
* There are some great financial planners and some really do know about the
stock market, but interestingly enough last I heard about 80% of the index
funds (such as S&P 500 index) outperform the actively managed funds with
much higher fees. If my portfolio over time isn’t doing better than “the
market” … such as S&P 500) maybe I should just invest myself in low cost
index funds, and then as needed pay an advisor (maybe for services rendered
or by the hour) for advice. Again, I DO recommend advisors but in the right
context.2. What changes would you suggest, and why?
KEY follow-up question – “will you guarantee that”? In most cases the
answer will be “no, of course I can’t guarantee that stocks on average
return 12%”. The reason I mention this is to learn to recognize someone’s
opinion vs. fact. You can’t always get facts but often opinions are
presented as fact
Thanks Steve and Emily….
Until next time…..rob

